Saturday, May 17, 2008

Population and Economy

What is population and economic sustainability?
Population
is the total number of people inhabiting a country, city or any particular area.



Economic sustainability is creating of economy that can be sustained well
into the future, on the bases of present and possible future resources stock.

At present did you know that the world population is around 6 billion?! Out of two hundred countries, just the top ten populous countries contribute to two thirds of the worlds population! They are China, India, United States, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Russia, Nigeria and Japan. The last billion was added just in last twelve years. If this keeps on going on our planet will be a very crowded place, which will give rise to many problems.


Our worlds population is going in two different directions. Most countries which are MEDC’s have older citizens and a declining population. Only 3/10 countries (most populous) are developed (Japan, United States and Russia). The LEDC’s have more of a younger nation but have an increasing population such as India.

Population change is a result of 2 processes. Natural and migrational change.


The rise is = birth + inward migration (immigration)

The decrease is = death + outward migration (emigration)


This is a graph of how the world population is changing



Stage 1: Have large number of children but they e
ven die. Some before the age of 60! So this means that there will be rise in death rate and the birth rate will go down because of famine, war and plague. Brazil is at this stage.

Stage 2: The birth rate is high but death rate starts to fall because of better medicine and treatment of dieses, better health care, education and better diet and food supply. The total population will even increase rapidly ( growth of 2% to 4%). Countries in western Africa, Asia and Central America are at this stage.


Stage 3: In this stage the birth rate falls because of family planning and etc. Argentina, Chin and Jamaica are at this stage.

Stage 4: Birth rate and death rate are equal but both of them are at a low population. The natural increase is very small. Countries such as Japan and countries in Europe are at this stage.


This is the information on the above graph.

INDIA





Anyways India, the 2nd most populous country is at stage 2 where the birth rate is rising and the death rate is falling. India has a population of 1.1 billion people. There are a few causes for the country’s high population. One of the reasons for high population in India is that per women there is an average of 3 – 6 children because there is low survival rate (one out of ten dies before the age of five) so there are . This is because they are uneducated and they don’t have rights to make there own decisions. Secondly they want at least 2 boys in their family, so that they could continue the family line, have people who earn money and people who could take care of elders. Thirdly, they believe that we should not have girls because they are taken as a liability as dowry has to be given when marring. If they know it is a girl, get it aborted. Furthermore women marry at a very low age (13- 16). All these causes together are going to lead to a big chaos. India needs to do something very fast. India will have Water shortages especially in the city Punjab which is the bread basket of India. This also makes the food production difficult to cope up with the growing population. Another effect is that there are many youngsters that leads to unemployment which affects the economy. India must create 6 million new jobs per year to cope up with the growing population. If we don’t have any control on the population growth, then the population will increase by double! This is a population pyramid of India.



Some solutions to control population growth and sustain the economy:


·Make health center and awareness of family planning

· Doctors are not allowed to tell gender from sonography


· Make people have education

· Have more employment opportunities


·
Increase marriageable age.


CHINA



China, the most populous country of the world is at stage 3. Its population at present is 1.3 billion people. In the past (1979) when women at an average had 3 – 5 children, the population was around 9 million. Through 1979- 2008 the population growth has slowed down. This is because the ‘One child policy’ was introduced by the state. The one child policy is where a family is only allowed to have one child. To encourage people to follow this they wer

e given incentives like getting free education, free pension and free housing. If they had more than one child they wouldn’t get those things free. Instead they would have to pay more tax and they would have to pay 15% of their income as a fine. This slowed the population growth and affected the economy.


In last 20 years China’ s economy has been growing rapidly. Due to population control, the resources which before were used in child care were used in industrialization. This gave rise to job opportunities. Due to urbanization 100 million people migrated from rural areas to urban areas for better job opportunities and having better lives. This was the biggest migration in human history. In the past did you know that majority of people in China were poor but now there are 300 million people who are middle classed. The personal income has increased by four times. As people are getting richer, demand for better things is increasing leading to more imports and growing the economy. China has become rich so fast that the economy has been growing by 8% each year from last twenty years. Today it is one of the largest growing economy of the world. Though China is the most populous country of the world it’s birth rate is low.

JAPAN


After a century of population growth and warning about ‘Population explosion’ most of the MEDC’s are now facing the ‘Population bust’. Declining population in some countries is becoming a major problem! Japan, one of the most developed countries is at stage 4 of the population change. It is facing the problem of aging population. Japan has a low birth rate of 1.3 children per women and a low death rate as well.

One reason for low birth rate is that women marry till the last possible time they could have their first child. Secondly, there are many young women who choose to be unmarried. Thirdly, women are educated and prefer to have careers. Since 1989, Japans economy is in recession. 2 people have to work per family to even be middle classed and also kid’s education is very expensive in Japan. Lastly, Japanese resist immigrants to preserve their culture which also keeps their population low.

Due to good medical facilities and good diet, Japanese live longer .Average age of a male is 78 and for a female it is 84. So most of the population is aging (in 2050 1/3 Japanese is going to be above 65 and retired). This means that there won’t be enough young to support the old. With aging population there will be few young work forces. Without the young, business would be affected due to lack of creative, dynamic new ideas. There just won’t be less workers but also fewer consumers. This in turn will affect the economy of the country. Secondly with older population the biggest cost for the government is to pay them pensions and provide them with health care and benefits. This leads to more taxes paid by the fewer young .Or in some cases the young need to support the old, increasing the need to save leading to lesser economic activity.


If Japan’s population continues to be the same by the end of this century its population is expected to be ½ and by the year 3000 Japan will have only 500 people left! Never in history has population declined so fast, so far and so unexpectedly. Japan needs to take some precautions for the future like giving incentives to couples to have children and to tax or fine people who don’t have children. It could also increase the age of retirement. Lastly it needs to encourage immigrants, especially economically active age range with young children.



AMERICA



Just like
Japan, America is also a developed economy at the same stage 4 of population growth. But unlike Japan it is a modern country that is growing. It is the 3rd. most populous country of the world. Due to the ‘baby boom’ generation in America, it has an aging population.1 out of 4 people retire. But at the same time U.S has enough young to support them as it takes 1 million immigrants per year. These immigrants and their children help America’s population to grow making it younger than the other developed countries.

RUSSIA

Russia‘s population goes into free fall! Russia is on the 5th.stage of population change. It has major problems with birth rate decreasing and the death rate increasing. Birth rate is going down due to poor health care. Only 1 out of 10 pregnancies results in a normal birth. While death rate is increasing due to heart problems, malnutrition and lot of smoking and alcohol. Over all population has declined by 6 million in 10 years and could fall another 39 million by 2050. At that point people over 60 are going to outnumber kids under 4. This will highly affect the economy. Other than Russia, U.K is also at this stage.


So in our journey through the different stages of population change we have seen that over population or under population in a country can have adverse effect on the economy of the country. For a sustainable growth it is important to keep population in check. With global rates of population beginning to decline, the world has a chance to correct the resource population balance leading to a better economy. We all have a responsibility to keep the rise in population under control by limiting our families to no more than 2 children. If this is done then t
he population is expected to reach 9 billion by 2050. But if there is even a half a child more then the global population will be 11 billion. Controlling the population growth is perhaps the greatest global challenge of all!

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Before I just knew about the population amount but now by reading this i even know the population amount but I even know the exact details